![]() In 2020, Evans scored 13 TDs on 109 targets for an 11.9% TD% (3 rd highest). What needs to be assessed is the likelihood this relatively disproportionate reliance on TDs is repeatable. We can hardly fade a player simply because they score a lot of touchdowns. Evans’ 12.3% TD% and %FPTS from TDs (32.0%) both lead the league. The simple but incomplete answer is touchdowns. Despite Evans finishing outside the Top 30 for most of these statistics, he still finished as a WR1 in fantasy points per game. Being bottom half in both, which is the case with Evans, typically would not translate to a WR1 season.īut there are no absolutes in fantasy analysis. A high air yards share with a low RACR indicates deeper targets, where YAC are much less likely. A low air yards share with a high RACR indicates the receiver is not being targeted very deep but is efficient with the air yards and doing damage with YAC. Also, you ideally want to see a high number for at least one of air yards share or RACR. A sub-20% target share and sub-30% WR target share look even worse within that context. However, while Evans played in 16 of 17 games, Godwin, Brown, and Gronkowski combined to miss a total of 17 games. ![]() Granted, on paper, the Buccaneers’ pass-catching group was loaded with talent. You can see in the chart above that Evans put up below-average numbers across the board:Ī common explanation for Evans’ low numbers would be the “too many mouths to feed” debate. Mike Evans finished as the WR10 on the season with 16.4 PPR points per game in 16 games. ![]() I added columns to this chart showing how each player scored their fantasy points (%FPTS from receptions, %FPTS from yards, and %FPTS from touchdowns) along with TD% (touchdowns per target). For this article, I chose to discuss two players that stand out as being somewhat out of place based on this data. Reorganizing the data, sorted by fantasy points per game, gives a better visual of how each player finished. This chart provides a snapshot of the 2021 season for these peripherals. The chart below shows the statistics discussed above for the 2021 Top 50 WRs (PPR format ppg basis). This is typically where I begin my offseason research because opportunity and efficiency are prerequisites for volume and production, respectively, and tend to be more predictive over larger sample sizes than statistics like total yards, targets, etc. Low air yard players like Chris Godwin and Deebo Samuel will in turn have a low air yard share, but both have a high RACR, which is why you cannot look at something like air yard share by itself. RACR is also important because it ties in yards after the catch (YAC). Receiver Air Conversion Ratio (RACR), which measures the number of receiving yards created for every air yard, is a great measure of a player’s efficiency once they’ve earned the opportunity (target) from the QB. Wide receiver market share statistics, such as target share, wide receiver target share, target rate (targets per route), receiving yards per team pass attempt (RY/TPA), and air yards share are some of the available metrics that effectively measure a player’s opportunity, with air yards additionally as a good indicator of the level of intent to get the ball in a receiver’s hands. Many different contexts begin to materialize once you start digging a little deeper. But they only tell a piece of the story and are relatively less predictive than some other metrics available to us. Receptions, yards, and touchdowns directly produce fantasy points and obviously should not be overlooked or ignored. On the surface, volume and production drive fantasy scoring. In this article, I will be looking at some useful metrics for wide receivers that showcase two drivers of fantasy production: opportunity and efficiency. There are many directions one can travel up this mountain of data. The rapid-fire nature of the Fantasy Football season has given way to an opportunity to breathe, let the dust settle, and dig into a full NFL year of data while it’s still relatively fresh. If you would like to get your hands on research tools or even an API feed to create your own personal data, click here and signup today!įantasy Breakdown: Opportunity and Efficiency This Fantasy article was created from Data and Statistics provided by FantasyData.
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